Risk management weighting risk wins and risk losses

I like the idea of managing my day to day risk. It is sort of like the insurance company does when they are deciding what my cost will be for my car insurance. It is also doing a little thinking about day to day life, and balancing those activities with more risk over a longer period of time. There is a large happy medium in our lives if we choose it. Sort of like Buddha and taking the middle road, it is not really that difficult and the returns are great.

I like driving as a good risk example because I live in a city, and driving is a part of my everyday life. I take two roads to work that are main trunk roads. They each have some serious accidents on them everyday. Because the traffic is moving rapidly, and there is a lot of it, I have to come to terms with possibilities that an accident I am involved in will probably be very serious.

At the rush hour times of day are the greatest risks of an accident. Early in the morning, there is always a possibility of a late night drunk heading home. During non rush hour periods are women and children in the car, or not, hurrying to get their shopping done before they have to meet their children and start their evening.

At night are usually the young drivers speeding around with their newfound power in their foot. This group of driver’s can rightly claim to have the fastest reflexes of any group out on the road, but they are also the least experienced, and most easily distracted group on the road. Of course their accident record and insurance rates reflect it. It appears by casual observation that they lead all age groups in rear end accidents, if you can call such accidents, accidents. Normally, they appear to be collisions caused by lack of attention.

When I venture out on these busy roads I have to be aware of the hazards of that time of day. The most serious accidents are at rush hour, the rest of the day except for about seven to ten at night is about the same risk, with that isolated period where I am most likely to have a collision with a teen age driver. So the wise thing to do would be off these roads during rush hour and middle evenings. To do otherwise is to increase my personal risk of being in an accident.

This same thought process applies to everything around me. Certain foods are better choices, some neighborhoods are safer, the amount of sleep I get makes a difference. In a high level view of our lives, we control very little of what happens around us. How we think about what we do, we can make a big difference in keeping ourselves safe.

Thinking about 9/11 is another good risk thinking exercise. You can name a number of large cities where you might live where 9/11 could have happened. You can also make a list of buildings most likely to be effected in each of these cities. Once you have that list, you can better manage your risk of being hurt even if you live in a large city with many possible targets. Better yet is not living in a large city, and choosing small town life instead. The problem with a small town is it has risks of its own, unless you know you would enjoy small town life.

It is good to make a little list of activities once in a while, broken out by time and risk. Too many risky activities means we are going to get hurt sooner instead of later, but too little risk does not always mean safety either, as accidents happen everywhere. Taking a known risk you can afford on every level may be a good risk. Speeding down the street and running a red light at rush hour, is a foolish risk. Knowing the difference keeps life exciting. Knowing the risks you take in general, and knowing whether or not you will survive if you lose, both physically and emotionally, makes life a lot more enjoyable.

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Your Godmother moved, it’s up to you

It is something the way some people approach their belief system. Some people go to such extremes after changing, and nothing changes in their life. It does not seem to matter to them though. They think if they wait a little longer, they will be rewarded.

What I see they end up having is a blame system. They decide what their life should be like. They make an attempt at being the new them. When it does not work out they try it all over again. After a number of tries they start accusing, and blaming, because they are not rewarded as they feel they should be. It is a new version of the, “Emperor’s New Clothes”, only in this story the Emperor does not walk around naked. The Emperor in this version of the story had his clothes washed, and given back to him.

Unfortunately, the new laundry service that washed the Emperor’s clothes made a mistake, and the clothes no longer look to be the same clothes the Emperor sent off to be cleaned. The laundry used some new cleaning product, and a new sequence of cleaning the clothes. What happened is the clothes are not the same texture, and colors not what they were before they were washed.

The clothes feel different to the Emperor because they have new texture, and colors, so the Emperor assumes they are new clothes. What the Emperor misses in this thinking is about the clothes themselves. If they were indeed different clothes than the Emperor sent to the laundry, that would mean someone else received the Emperor’s clothes, and the Emperor received their clothes. Because the Emperor thinks these clothes are better than the old clothes, there is no need to change anything – as the laundry made the mistake. The mistake seems to be in the Emperor’s favor, so of course the Emperor is quiet about the switch.

The laundry does not have the dilemma they thought they would, because so far everyone thinks the clothes they wear now are better than the clothes they sent in for cleaning! So the laundry, other than have some anxiety over who may complain about their clothes, has no real problem at the moment.

Now the Emperor has been wearing his new clothes for a while. While the Emperor likes the new color and texture of the clothes, it seems something is not quite right with the clothes. The Emperor was sure that these new clothes were special, and as soon as they were put on, everything would start changing in the Emperor’s life.

Sadly, for the Emperor, there has been very little change except for the few days of vibrant enthusiasm of wearing new clothes and feeling pretty good about it. The Emperor notices little by little the major life change he is expecting is not happening! The Emperor can not understand what is wrong, and starts to get a little disgruntled.

The Emperor talks to some of his new friends who think they have also received the new clothes. They all seem happy, upbeat, and on a new path in life. Maybe their life has changed, and maybe it has not changed all they pretend it has, but it makes the Emperor angry thinking he is missing out.

There is no belief system I know of that is built around the idea of an all powerful being who waves a magic wand over new converts, and changes their world because they changed their clothes. If there were any instant payoff belief system, you can believe the whole world would be there already. But there is not one anywhere here…changing your clothes does not change your life.

If you wait for some all powerful being to come and make your life better, because you decided to think differently, I hope you have a comfortable spot to sit and wait, because it won’t be happening in this lifetime, in this reality. That is the stuff fairy tales are made of, and the best we can do is read about them.

I have learned in my life – if I want positive life changes: I have to be active in the process; today is a good day to start; blaming my belief system does not change anything.

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Our Economy and Our Personal Spending

Well over a century ago when things were not simpler, just different. One of my ancestors, most likely my great Grandfather, had some legal problems in Ireland that became serious enough he found his way into a courtroom. He was made a prisoner aboard an English ship, jumped ship in Canada and made his way into the United States, and settled in Michigan.

My great Grandfather saw a lot of things change in his time much like we do today. In his day, in a little town in Michigan, he worked, saved and had a successful life. This was still in the horse and buggy day, so the cost of living was quite low compared to today at the turn of the century. A lot has changed since that time. A few of the changes that took place were railroads and track, automobiles and roads, federal income tax, world wars, the great depression, and that is only the high level view.

For the individuals of their time, people just like like you and I were slowly drawn into a life of consumerism. Suddenly goods that people had been happy with for many years were suddenly old, faded, worn, or there were exciting new products out there that people just could not live without. People went from saving as much of their pay checks as they could, to spending their paychecks, and some spent faster than others.

For many of us learning from our parents and their good life in the fifties and sixties we have become a nation of debtors chasing instant gratification. Over half of us can not always pay our bills on time, nor can many of us afford what we owe. We have evolved not into just buying this we want, but replacing perfectly good items with newer items, primarily our cars. For many of us we do not need a new car, we want a new car.

Unfortunately, because we are creatures of habit, our car spending thinking trickles down to all aspects of our life. We could work our way out of debt, but we choose not to generally. The steps for getting out of debt are easy, while following those steps are not. It is much easier not to put ourselves in that position to start with.

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